Did the march on Saturday, amazing experience though sadly destined to be a one-off. Like all loose pressure-group federations, this one is likely to splinter into factions as soon as the constituent groups start pulling the whole into directions which don't command universal support; a march is one thing, especially for people who want to register the minimum of disagreement, but direct action? That requires protesters of sterner stuff. Many of the middle classes (to use an odious but appropriate term - and I include myself), brought out into the street by lack of other forum are, simply, going to baulk at taking any more radical steps. Ultimately this underlines the futility of hopes that Saturday's protest will prevent the war. One effect it has had is to bring the plight of the Iraqi people to the very front of the Prime Minister's rhetoric. At least I figured this to be the reason for his increasingly messianic speeches. Until I saw this. Now I just suspect that he took last week's Russel Davies religious drama a bit too personally.

Post on popbitch drew attention to a statement from Blunkett about the current state of emergency here in London reported on the BBC:

The home secretary said the nature of the threat was on areas where people were travelling or gathering in large numbers. ".

As was pointed out on the messageboard (sorry, html not advanced enough to link to the actual post), it's just as well that there are no major gatherings planned in London over the next week, gatherings that, say, might be critical of the government and its policy.

Personally I remain sitting on the fence, as a good Liberal should. On the one hand war is terrible, a tool of absolute last resort and would destabilise an incredibly sensitive region with no guarantee of disinterested nation-building in the aftermath. On the other Saddam is evil and despotic with dynastic intent. The West is reaping the crop sown in support for secular Iraq over fundamentalist Iran in the 80s and should not duck its responsibility; sanctions are cowardly and incredibly harmful to the very innocents the anti-war protesters wish to protect. I think I will be heading out to the march on Saturday (12.30, Embankment) because of the circumstances; this is a rushed road to war with too many questionable motives and too many extant alternatives. And to those who may accuse the marchers of naivete and wishful idealism, who say that Saddam will eventually become a real danger (and without bringing North Korea into discussion) I would ask, it is any better to have a United States with an incredibly hawkish leadership to whom you have just handed a mandate to remove any government of which it disapproves?

In a world going increasingly to pot, it's always nice to hear a voice of reason. No, this isn't some thinly disguised plug for Kerry, nor a barely comprehensible rant against Bush but a sensible, clearly argued dissection of Europe's doubt over an attack on Iraq by an American commentator. They key issues are motives and the trustworthiness of the Bush administration when it comes to promises of re-building the country after the assumed victory. These have become obfuscated, on the one hand by shrill, uncompromising condemnation of, at best, half-proven weapon possession and on the other by many fine words about support for the people and establishment of a new, democratic regime. Well, denunciation of ones enemies is nothing new and everyone knows the capicity for fine words when it comes to the buttering of parsnips...

Haven't posted for a while because of my new job! A side benefit of this employment is British Library access, meaning I can look up and read a bunch of interesting but unobtainable books.

Just got back from a Saturday reading Thrilling Cities by Ian Fleming. Basically a way for Fleming to get some cash out of the Sunday Times for what amounted to global gallivanting, but enjoyable, deliciously chauvinistic and somewhat self-deprecating - a characteristic I didn't expect from Fleming at all.

One particular gem comes from his trip to Las Vegas when he re-prints what he claims to be gambling tips told to him by a friend, who was also the front-man in Vegas for the "Chicago mob". The advice itself seems pretty useful, and that's as good a reason as any to post it here:


How to Gamble Sensibly
First you must get a strong grip on yourself and defeat the inner voice. You can’t beat Aristotle but you might - just might – trick the old boy. You can control the psychology that is working against you.

Decide the maximum amount you will lose and stick to it! If you violate this rule, nothing can help you except Fort Knox. It’s better to divide your amount by days so that you can’t lose your maximum for the whole visit the first day and have to wrestle psychology for the rest of your visit.

Now here’s the hard part: decide the maximum you will win and stick yo it; this prevents your becoming a jazzy chass [a term of contempt describing a winner who is trying to get rich I.F.]. If you follow these two rules, you’re well on the way to having fun without pain.

When you’re ready to play, watch the game for a while. Games run hot and cold – that is, for short stretches the house will win or lose fairly steadily (naturally winning more than they lose) – try to sit in a game on a ‘cold’ dealer or croupier, when he turns ‘hot’ go to another table.

Your wins and losses will follow unpredictable cycles. Do not double when you lose – double when you win. Your possibility of winning twice in a row is greater than winning after a loss. [I doubt this. The table has no memory. I.F.]

Set a maximum you will lose on each table. When you lose it, go to another table. If you get ahead, put aside some pre-decided portion of your winnings and of you get down to that, quit the table and go to another. This process will limit your loss on each table and, if you hit a streak of luck, will let you get away from the table ahead of the game (maybe, perhaps, could be, could not be).

Above all else, if you catch yourself making a bet and thinking of all the things you could but with the amount of the bet, QUIT! Never let the amount you are betting become large enough to be important to you!

Nothing or no-one can give you a system for winning; but if you follow these simple rules you can control your losses and enjoy your visit.